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新闻分析:叙利亚伊德利卜之战怎么打

2018年09月10日 17:16来源:网络整理手机版

叙利亚西北部伊德利卜省及其周边地区,被认为是除叙北部库尔德人控制区之外,被叙反政府武装占据的最后一块主要地盘。目前,叙政府军正在为收复这片地区紧锣密鼓地进行战前准备,伊德利卜之战随时可能打响。

难啃骨头

叙利亚政府军近年来在打击反政府武装和反恐战争中取得节节胜利,上海教育网,斗志高昂。目前盘踞在伊德利卜地区的反政府武装虽然是“杂牌军”,但战斗力依然不可小觑,是一块难啃的骨头。

反政府武装阵营构成复杂,派系众多,分别受到美国等西方国家、海湾国家和土耳其等国的支持。此外,极端组织“伊斯兰国”和有“基地”组织背景的“征服阵线”在当地也有大量人员存在。

自2016年底以来,叙政府军相继收复了北方最大城市阿勒颇、靠近首都大马士革的反政府武装大本营东古塔和西南部德拉地区,使反政府武装失去大部分地盘。在此过程中,叙政府军为加快战争进程,刻意对反政府武装人员“网开一面”,允许同意放下武器的反政府武装人员及其家属撤离至伊德利卜地区。

对于这些反政府武装来说,伊德利卜是他们的最后一处主要老巢。丧失伊德利卜,将意味着他们在叙境内再难有立足之地,因此他们势必会负隅顽抗。

多方协调

俄罗斯、土耳其和伊朗将于本月7日在伊朗首都德黑兰举行首脑会议,着重讨论叙利亚局势特别是伊德利卜战局。

叙政府军在伊德利卜对反政府武装发动攻势,目前看来已经势在必行。分析人士认为,俄土伊三国需要协调解决一系列问题,其中包括这次战役的开战时间、战争范围和打击对象等,既要避免三国各自支持的武装力量之间擦枪走火,又要防止战火扩大失控而损害三国利益。

得到伊朗支持的什叶派民兵和黎巴嫩真主党人员预计也将参与对伊德利卜的攻击行动,以配合叙政府军。此外,俄罗斯空天部队还将对叙反政府武装阵地发动空袭。

伊德利卜地区靠近土耳其在叙利亚西北部占领的阿夫林地区,而且在伊德利卜有土耳其支持的反政府武装。土耳其显然希望保存这部分反政府武装实力,避免其成为叙政府军的攻击目标,同时阻止伊德利卜战火扩大到阿夫林地区。

相互叫板

目前,美国和俄罗斯都在地中海东部水域展现军力,摆出相互叫板的姿态。据报道,美国已经把装备“战斧”式巡航导弹的大型驱逐舰和核潜艇等大量军舰部署在靠近伊德利卜地区的地中海水域,摆出随时准备介入叙利亚战事的架势。

8月21日,美国、英国和法国发表联合声明表示,“严重”关切叙政府军在伊德利卜省可能采取的军事行动。美英法三国还警告,若叙政府有使用化学武器的任何行为,它们都将做出“适当”回应。

俄罗斯和叙利亚政府都表示,一向善于制造化武袭击假消息的所谓“白头盔”人员,正与恐怖组织策划,极速体育,打算在伊德利卜省再次“导演一场化武袭击”,目的是为美英法三国实施军事干预制造借口。

目前,俄海军正在地中海东部靠近叙利亚水域进行军事演习,这被认为是冷战结束以来俄在地中海地区举行的最大规模海上军演,旨在展示俄反对西方国家以武力干涉叙利亚战事的意志和能力。

分析人士认为,考虑到美国总统特朗普上台以来曾两次以化武袭击为借口下令空袭叙境内目标,美国有可能故伎重施,但全面介入叙战事的可能性不大。(记者 邵杰)

(责编:刘晶(实习生)、樊海旭)

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