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那些推动自由贸易的美国总统

2018年09月17日 01:07来源:网络整理手机版

原标题:那些推动自由贸易的美国总统

2018-09-14_094156

编者按:从历史的经验看,每当美国领导人对外选择开放的经济政策,对内积极解决产业的升级换代,美国经济就变得更强大,社会就变得更富裕。反之,当美国领导人将国际贸易视为零和游戏,短视地拥抱关税壁垒,相伴而来的总是经济的收缩和萧条。

历史告诉人们,正是威尔逊、罗斯福、克林顿大力推进自由贸易,才使得美国在一战、二战、冷战结束后迅速变得更强大。当下美国倘若真的要“再次伟大”,搞贸易壁垒、贸易霸凌那一套,那么,“再次伟大”的门也没有。

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作者:张国庆(中国社科院美国研究所国际问题专家)

美国在20世纪不断走强,进而成为超级大国,其中一个重要原因是在几次历史性关键时刻都做出了正确选择。在一战、二战及战后的多数时间里,美国坚持推动贸易自由化和全球化,就是典型的例证。

在一战后的巴黎和会上,时任美国总统威尔逊提出了著名的“十四点计划”,以求建立和平、民族自决、正义的世界秩序方案,其中就包括取消贸易壁垒这一条。威尔逊本人也身体力行地倡导自由贸易。他卸任后,美国进入一个经济高速发展的黄金时代。1920年1月10日,《凡尔赛条约》正式生效的这一天,国际联盟在威尔逊主持下宣告正式成立,其使命是鼓励各国政府以和平手法解决国际争端。由于种种原因,美国最终没有加入国际联盟,使其丧失了维持国际和平稳定的支持力量,但威尔逊对国际联盟的发展,对20世纪贸易全球化的第一次尝试,都发挥了重要作用。他本人也因此获得了诺贝尔和平奖。

在经济危机中受命力挽狂澜的罗斯福总统,于1934年果断制定了《互惠贸易协定法》,以配合罗斯福新政。美国不久便恢复了元气,并且逐渐成为世界经济、军事巨头。此后,美国总统普遍将自由贸易视为复杂的外交策略中少数的双赢政策之一,直到特朗普上台为止。1939年,美国国务院最先提出,要成立一个新的世界组织以取代有缺陷的国际联盟,罗斯福最先使用“联合国”一词描述这个组织。《联合国宪章》明确提出,要在国际金融和贸易领域采取有监管的自由贸易和市场开放的原则。这对后世影响极大,也使得自由贸易成为国际社会的主流意识与长期选择。

接下来是千日总统肯尼迪。1962年10月11日,肯尼迪经过9个月的博弈,终于促成并签署了国会通过的《贸易扩大法》。这被视为他个人的重大政治胜利,也被视为自由贸易的福音。肯尼迪的初衷,正如他所说的那样——如果美国想要增加出口,就必须大面积降低关税,这样才能在与欧洲以及苏联的竞争中取得优势。具有讽刺意味的是,这一法案在半个世纪后成为特朗普发动贸易战的重要武器。

20世纪80年代,里根总统更是对自由贸易推崇备至,多次赞扬自由贸易的好处。竞选总统期间,他就提出了“北美共同市场”的构想,入主白宫后更是签订了《美加自由贸易协定》,并推动美国、加拿大、墨西哥三国的自由贸易发展,从而为全球自由贸易发展开了好头。这一举措使多方受益,美国经济迅速走出滞胀,上演了“里根经济学”奇迹。美国的开放姿态使美中关系得到很好发展,给改革开放初期的中国企业及睁眼看世界的中国人提供了诸多机会。

克林顿一直强调取消关税壁垒以实现自由贸易,他执政时期促成了世界贸易组织(WTO)的建立,在推动贸易全球化方面也取得一系列进展。1993年美国国会通过《北美自由贸易协议》,次年世界贸易组织成立,这些均具有世界性意义,也成为美国经济高速发展的关键动力,为美国赢得了“黄金八年”。

回顾过去的一个世纪,会发现这些推动贸易全球化的美国总统的共同特点:认知有高度,行动有热度。他们认为,降低贸易壁垒对美国有利:有利于美国企业在世界各地投资,这最终会使美国消费者获利,比如享受低价的电视机和T恤衫;有利于美国对盟国出口,美国的产品也容易在海外找到新市场。他们的认知符合时代潮流,代表了世界的主流方向。他们在各自的时代及其后的岁月,都为美国经济发展做出了重要贡献,使实体经济受益,也使美国股市受益。里根与克林顿时期,美国股市道琼斯指数涨了10倍。在美国力主自由贸易的岁月里,其国际影响力与领导力也都是较强的。从威尔逊到罗斯福,从里根到克林顿,美国的国际话语权、领导力处在很强的位置。

美国历史学家对几位力主自由贸易的总统评价极高,罗斯福、威尔逊与里根被评为“伟大总统”;肯尼迪英年早逝,但在任期间,他的支持率是非常高的;克林顿若没有莱温斯基丑闻,也必然是接近“伟大总统”的。

作为相反的例子,美国历史上仅有的一个推行贸易保护主义、反对自由贸易的时期,即胡佛式逆潮流时期,是超级失败的。尽管胡佛故去近半个世纪,但只要出现金融危机或者贸易保护主义苗头时,他的名字就会被屡屡提及。

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