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巴西专家:美财政贸易政策将加剧其贸易逆差

2018年04月16日 15:55来源:网络整理手机版

巴西知名私立商学院IBMEC经济学教授罗伯托·杜马斯·达马斯日前表示,美国扩张性财政政策和贸易保护主义将加剧其贸易逆差,这些政策的方向就是错误的。

达马斯在接受新华社记者采访时说,美国政府将企业税率从35%降至21%,从宏观经济学角度来看,如果一国在低储蓄高消费的情况下,减税带来支出的增加将刺激进口需求,从而导致更高的贸易逆差。

同时,达马斯认为,特朗普加征的进口钢铝关税不仅不会增加美国钢铁工人的就业机会,还可能加剧美国贸易逆差。

他认为,技术革新带来生产率提升使得钢铁行业就业机会减少。20世纪80年代,生产1吨钢铁需要花费10个工时。而现在,同样生产1吨钢铁只需要两个工时,因此限制进口并不会明显增加该行业的国内工作岗位。

其次,征收进口钢铝关税会对产业链下游工人产生负面影响。目前美国钢铁行业产业链上游企业雇佣员工人数约18万人,而产业链下游企业则雇佣了超过360万工人。限制钢铁进口会推升国内钢铁下游产品制造成本,削弱卡特彼勒和惠而浦这样的企业的外部竞争力,从而危及产业链下游工人的就业机会。

最后,进口钢铝高关税会增加美国通货膨胀。目前美国失业率降至4.1%,在接近充分就业的同时,政府实施扩张性财政政策,限制进口只会引发通胀。在美联储加快加息步伐的情况下,国内利率的上涨将导致美元进一步升值,德德搜书吧工艺品,从而使美国商品出口竞争力下降,更不利于缩小贸易逆差。(记者 彭桦)

(责编:李阿茹娜(实习生)、刘洁妍)

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