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大类资产配置“雾失楼台”机构投资策略生变

2018年04月13日 09:32来源:网络整理手机版

原标题:大类资产配置“雾失楼台” 机构投资策略生变

  大类资产配置“雾失楼台” 机构投资策略生变

  灵活机动、多点布局,更加重视防风险

  资产配置受影响

  近期,中美贸易关系紧张一度成为市场最大的不确定性因素,引发投资者风险偏好起落,大类资产配置逻辑亦产生深层次变化。

  中银国际宏观策略研究员朱启兵表示,虽然目前来看国际经济复苏的前提仍在,但美国贸易保护政策的强硬出台,或将对国际经济复苏前景造成一定负面影响。未来一段时间,叠加美联储加息等因素,可能在全球造成风险偏好的系统性回落,短期内资金或更偏好固定收益类资产和货币类资产。

  考虑到外部环境的变化,朱启兵将大类资产的配置顺序调整为债券>货币>股票>大宗商品。当然,从近期国内外经济数据来看,复苏趋势没有改变。但对国内来说,最重要的因素还是经济复苏韧性较强。

  广发证券首席宏观分析师郭磊表示,中国降低汽车等行业进口关税、主动扩大进口、加强知识产权保护等举措体现了大国风范和积极姿态。中长期来看,扩大进口的战略举措有助于内外均衡,在客观上会提升经济增长和汇率的稳定性。

  “在2018年的某个时段,我们有望在中国相关的股票上获得难得的买入机会。”惠理集团主席兼联席首席投资总监谢清海指出,目前中国股票的市盈率仅为12.5倍,估值并非昂贵。建议长线投资者开始逐步累积中国相关股票,皆因没有人能准确把握市场底部,而长线投资者不用理会市场的所有讯息。中国的投资环境依然具有相当吸引力,股票估值处于合理水平。

  拨云见日

  对于A股行情,二季度机构考虑较多的还包括资管新规、“四新经济”支持政策等因素。

  平安证券分析师对于二季度给出的情景判断是:第一,金融监管力度将系统性加大,大资管新规的落地是系统性的,在金融体系内部去杠杆的同时,总杠杆在2018年趋于下降的态势不变,而且是从企业、政府到居民的较为全面的杠杆调降和防控;第二,支持新兴产业的战略性基调不变,这是中国立足于未来全球竞争的关键,政策的支持将持续,玩意儿,对于制造业的减税政策同样体现为对于中国制造业的支持之中;第三,内部积极防范风险和外部应对政策冲突,更为开放的经济政策可能是重要的选择。

  国泰君安策略分析师表示,当前对于贸易摩擦的担忧逐渐趋于和缓,市场关注点有望逐渐转向内生变量。而金融监管推进节奏必然受到经济增长与外部风险状况制约。短期随着春季复工需求的释放,周期终端需求的悲观预期将趋于修复。在悲观预期修复大格局下,市场整体将维持区间震荡,以结构性行情为主。

  “投资者对未来市场有三大担忧。第一,经济基本面能否保持稳定,企业盈利增长能否保持高增长。第二,金融监管会否影响资金面和市场风险偏好。第三,今年市场风格会否重新走向另一个极端,创业板会否独领风骚?对这三个问题,4月市场会给出答案。”海通证券首席策略分析师荀玉根表示,4月全面开工后,宏观经济形势将更明朗,年报、季报逐渐披露,微观企业盈利数据将更明朗。政策方面,资管新规最终对股票市场有利。1980年-2000年美国通过发展资本市场,一方面培育了微软、谷歌、FACEBOOK为代表的科技龙头公司,实现创新转型;另一方面,通过401K把资金引入股市,充实了居民养老金。中国正在朝这个方向努力:一方面,发展股权融资,包括CDR制度让中概股回归、国内“独角兽”上市;另一方面,通过制度安排引入长期资金,养老目标基金运行办法可以说是中国版401K。

  市场风格方面,他认为,2月中旬开始的创业板占优,原因是年初躁动行情的轮涨叠加政策面利好,这种上涨能否持续关键要看4月公布的业绩。2018年创业板盈利增速会改善,但幅度远不如2013年,风格上出现2013年一边倒的情景可能性不大。4月业绩公告会让市场风格更加均衡,价值、成长中有业绩支持的公司都有机会。

  兴业证券研究所副所长、全球首席策略分析师张忆东认为,长期来看,中国核心资产重估的大趋势不变,港股长牛主升浪可期。2017年年报验证了“核心资产盈利新周期”,未来不论是传统行业蓝筹,还是新兴产业龙头,核心资产盈利向好的趋势将保持,并进一步获得重估。张忆东建议,因市场恐慌情绪导致优质资产被错杀时,应逢低增持。

  谨慎操作

  在多因素扰动市场风险偏好、冲击大类资产配置的背景下,一些机构顺势而为,将风险防控与收益赚取放在同样重要的位置。在资产配置上,坚持灵活机动、多点布局。

  格上研究中心数据显示,3月私募行业平均收益为0.52%,除组合基金、套利策略外,其余策略均取得月度正收益。3月管理期货策略整体表现最好,程序化期货以4.86%的月平均收益摘得各策略业绩榜首,主观期货以4.72%的平均收益名列第二。期货策略整体表现亮眼主要得益于贸易因素影响下商品市场多数主力品种出现单边下行走势,整体波动率回升,趋势跟踪策略赚钱效应明显。与之相反,在中美贸易摩擦的阴霾下,除创业板逆市大涨外,A股市场整体表现不佳,与A股市场相关性较大的股票策略、定向增发、组合基金业绩表现不佳,3月平均收益率均低于行业平均水平,组合基金更是以-0.41%的平均收益率垫底。同时,受股票策略表现不佳拖累,今年以来私募行业平均收益率仅为-0.85%。“整体均衡配置,个别时期做局部调整,近期在外部环境影响下,大部分配置以收缩防御为主基调。”有私募投研人士说。

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