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清库后再出发PPP下半年料回暖

2018年04月13日 09:30来源:网络整理手机版

原标题:清库后再出发 PPP下半年料回暖

  清库后再出发 PPP下半年料回暖

  去年下半年来,金融防风险重要性持续提升,一系列严控措施,令火热的PPP市场降了温。据中国证券报记者了解到,在3月底清库大限下,目前各地PPP自查自清工作已基本结束。受访人士指出,今年将是PPP规范发展年,将结束前期运动式的发展,由量变转向质变,PPP清库结束后银行融贷或将于二季度逐渐恢复,下半年PPP市场有望回暖,未来市场将进入良性发展轨道。

  新疆等六省出库率较大

  3月底清库大限已过,目前多地陆续完成PPP项目清库和整改。

  中金公司统计显示,总量上看,此次绝大部分出库项目集中在新疆、宁夏、内蒙古、黑龙江、江苏和湖南六省区,这六省区PPP出库项目占全部出库金额的86%。就对各省自身PPP投资的相对影响看,宁夏、新疆、黑龙江、内蒙古和天津五省市的出库项目占其各自原始项目总投资额的比例最高。而从各省各自的出库额占比来看,宁夏50%的PPP项目被清理出库,新疆为23.6%。此外,黑龙江、内蒙古和天津受此次清理影响亦较大。

  分行业来看,全国绝大部分的目前出库项目落在交通运输、旅游、市政工程及城镇综合开发等领域;就对各行业的相对影响来看,能源、旅游、体育和农业等行业的出库比例位于前列,受此次清理的相对影响较大。从总金额绝对量看,交通运输行业占比最高,其投资额占到全部出库项目的25%;其次为旅游、市政工程和城镇综合开发。

  机构认为,此次PPP项目库的清理,叠加去年下半年来地方政府融资监管趋严,可能会影响部分财政基础较薄弱省市PPP项目入库、融资和开工进度;同时,局部回报堪忧、现金流不佳的项目投资也可能受到进一步的收紧。

  北京市京师律师事务所合伙人张从治表示,越是财力薄弱的地方,退库率就越高,PPP市场各方总体上呈观望状态。总体来看,央企已经收紧,民企正蠢蠢欲动,真正让民营资本能够参与进来市场才能长久发展。清库之后,将结束前期运动式的发展,PPP发展将由量变转向质变,看球直播,地方债务也有望下降,PPP将进入常规的良性发展轨道。

  二季度银行放贷有望恢复

  “我们接触的项目中有一半以上都遇到资金问题,现在都在等待银行政策明朗。”张从治向中国证券报记者表示,PPP目前面临的主要问题就是资金。

  “去年我们行PPP业务量非常大,现在可以说降至冰点。”一位国有大行负责PPP业务的相关人士表示,PPP融资方面银行已经没有太多的空间,未来能否实现突破关键有两个方面,一方面是在资管新规下,会不会出台一些配套政策;另一方面,应拓宽融资渠道,鼓励保险资金、社保基金、养老金投资PPP。

  张从治认为,目前亟须出台金融支持PPP相关配套措施,明确穿透审查、融资成本等问题,让民资能够进来,并建立独立的审查机制。

  大岳咨询公司总经理金永祥同时表示,前期出台的一系列政策对于他们总体没有太大影响,从92号文到现在,工作量是在增加的,证明政府仍在不断推进PPP的。随着3月31日清库工作的陆续结束,在库里的项目银行放款会陆续开始,但这会有一个过程。

  金永祥指出,政策出台的目的并非封杀PPP项目,而是为了让PPP发展更加规范、更可持续。从PPP市场总体情况来看,随着清库的结束和银行放贷的恢复,二季度可能会逐渐恢复,真正恢复到去年的水平可能要到下半年。未来市场将回归理性,央企仍将占主导。

  PPP仍有较大发力空间

  长江证券分析师赵伟认为,92号文发布以来,PPP新项目入库速度并未放缓,而是仍在加快。92号文发布至4月7日,新入库项目2011个、对应投资总额近2.8万亿元,平均每月新入库项目402个、对应投资额5504亿元,较2016年和2017年上半年均有所加快。市场对PPP模式仍有较高认可度,后续PPP或仍将有较大发力空间。从PPP新入库行业结构变化来看,生态环保、农业、林业等新入库项目比重较高、项目库增长较快,与精准脱贫、环保攻坚等部分领域加快发力有关,极速体育,或将助力经济“加速转型”。

  中信证券认为,4-5月份有望成为集中融资落地的窗口期,融资情况将决定业绩的确定性。在今年整体资金偏紧、行业持续规范的背景下,继续维持PPP订单全年高位稳增判断。企业层面,央企、国企可能受监管影响更大,在降杠杆、表外基金规范等影响下扩张步伐料将有所放缓;民企则相对较少使用表外基金的形式,但信贷偏紧的形势下,其融资压力也不小,各家融资落地将更加分化。因此,叠加基本面、行业趋势以及资金面影响,继续看好央企和民营龙头企业。

  对于PPP未来的发展,国家金融与发展实验室、中国社会科学院金融研究所及金融法律与金融监管研究基地12日联合发布的《中国金融监管报告2018》报告指出,防范PPP风险,重点在于规范PPP,引导PPP回归本质。建议针对重大PPP项目建立多级政府资本金共担机制,缓解政府资本金投入不足问题;从国家层面进一步明确界定传统基础设施和公共服务领域的范围,避免地方财政厅和发改委在PPP管理和监督方面职责重叠;规范央企和地方国企参与PPP行为,避免代理问题;对PPP项目中的财政支出责任进行风险监控等。(本报记者 刘丽靓)

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