位置: > 创业先例 > 正文 >

达沃斯:世界经济将维持向好态势

2018年09月29日 03:51来源:网络整理手机版

原标题:达沃斯:世界经济将维持向好态势

  世界经济前景几何、中国经济趋势如何,这是历年达沃斯论坛绕不过去的话题。在第十二次夏季达沃斯论坛上,与会者聚焦全球经济目前面临的挑战和未来机遇,认为尽管当前世界经济形势仍有阴霾,但第四次工业革命和新兴经济体持续发展将为全球经济增长提供保证,中国经济的稳定增长和“一带一路”倡议也将为全球经济提供强劲动力。

  全球经济挑战与机遇并存

  在此次论坛举行之际,全球市场刚刚经历新兴市场货币大幅贬值、贸易摩擦愈演愈烈,世界经济前景似乎挑战重重。但与会嘉宾纷纷表示,多重利好仍将维持世界经济向好态势,包括全球正拥抱第四次工业革命、新兴市场工业化步伐依旧、“一带一路”倡议提升区域发展潜力等。

  在做投资20多年的瑞银集团大中华区主席蔡红军看来,世界市场起起伏伏,充满了不确定性,经历了今年1月的良好运行后,阿根廷、土耳其、俄罗斯、中国等世界新兴市场的经济却纷纷下行,经贸摩擦也构成了另一个挑战。

  世界经济论坛创始人兼执行主席克劳斯·施瓦布表示,当前,世界经济主要面临经贸摩擦、增长周期调整、债务危机、全球变暖等挑战。

  尽管世界经济仍有阴霾,但与会人士同时表示,世界经济亮眼之处也十分突出,尤其是新兴市场工业化步伐依旧和中国提出的“一带一路”倡议,为经济相对落后地区的发展创造了有利条件。

  新兴经济体仍是世界经济增长引擎。麦肯锡公司一份题为《表现优异者:高增长的新兴经济体和推动它们的企业》的报告称,两大因素使得部分新兴经济体表现优异:一是新兴经济体在生产力、收入和需求等方面采取了促进增长的政策,推动了经济增长;二是这些新兴经济体的大企业发挥了十分突出的作用。在表现优异的经济体中,超过2/3的GDP增长归因于工业化。工业化有力地推动生产力,生产力增长带来收入大幅增加的同时也刺激了消费,从而创造了更多就业岗位。

  “一带一路”沿线地区也将成为全球经济复苏的新增长点。在达沃斯论坛期间,国家发改委主任何立峰介绍,五年来,共建“一带一路”已形成更为广泛的国际共识,已有106个国家和29个国际组织与中国签署了150份合作文件。中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的投资和经贸合作水平显著提升,中国对沿线国家的投资超过800亿美元,已建立82个境外经贸合作区,为当地创造了24万多个就业岗位,中欧班列累计开行超过1万列。

  国际货币基金组织预测,到2020年,“一带一路”沿线国家和地区货物贸易总额将达到19.6万亿美元,占全球货物贸易总额的38.9%。

  第四次工业革命激发潜能

  第四次工业革命在对社会产生颠覆性影响的同时,也给解决问题提供了许多机遇。与会人士注意到,多项前沿技术已经引领全球进入新的增长阶段,释放出的潜力已令中国等拥抱创新的经济体受益。

  人工智能正全面创造新市场、新机会,全面重塑传统行业发展模式和格局,在推动经济繁荣、民生改善等方面发挥着越来越重要的作用。“人工智能是房地产科技初创企业重点研究的方向。”仲量联行中国投资部总监吴允燊说,作为房地产行业咨询机构,他一直关注房地产科技的新进展。“人工智能可以更多地运用到物业管理、设施管理和工程建筑等房地产环节中。在人工智能帮助下,我们看到了房地产行业大幅提升行业效率的可能。”吴允燊表示。

  区块链是第四次工业革命的又一代表性成果。施瓦布判断,预计到2025年之前,全球GDP总量的10%将使用区块链技术储存。当前,众多知名企业、投资人密切关注区块链动向。他们期待借助区块链技术,改善传统业务流程,极速体育,创造崭新的业务模式。吴允燊认为,区块链如果应用到房地产投资和租赁的交易中,将为评估、智能合约、支付与供应链管理方面带来良好表现。南开大学教授田利辉表示,区块链技术在金融领域有着广泛应用前景,区块链金融可以在智能合约、数字货币、记录保全和人工智能四个方面发力。

  美国FinTech4Good创始人张晓晨表示,区块链技术应用越来越广泛,这会令经济增长受益。“区块链技术的应用能促进市场信息匹配效率提高,能够令传统行业商业模式得以进化改变,尤其能够降低人工成本、减少中间环节,其对贸易融资、供应链行业的效率提高作用已显现。”

  “当前在电子技术、机器技术、生物技术上面的进步前所未有,这些都在改变世界经济。”美国纽约大学斯特恩商学院商业教授Arun Sundararajan表示。

  “中国新经济模式发展非常迅速。”摩根大通亚太区副主席李晶表示。美国市场调研公司Forrester的数据显示,中国电子商务市场的规模预计将在2022年达到1.8万亿美元。在线上支付方面,中国也在扮演领导角色。中国似乎都不用现金了,中国的农村地区也在受益。

  消费助力中国经济持续增长

  作为近几年来世界经济的稳定器,中国经济的表现备受瞩目,以消费引领的经济增长令人信心十足。

  “中国GDP占全球经济16%,占亚洲经济的50%。也就是30万亿美元的经济体,而且中国为全球经济贡献35%的增幅。”李晶表示。

本文地址:http://www.baijuechina.com/chuangyexianli/33812.html 转载请注明出处!

大家都在看更多>>

今日热点资讯
baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina