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国内房企库存增速放缓去化压力有所改善

2018年09月28日 11:22来源:网络整理手机版

原标题:国内房企库存增速放缓 去化压力有所改善

  在坚持“房住不炒”这一基本定位的背景下,今年以来,国内各地楼市调控政策频频加码,市场走势趋稳的同时,也让房地产企业面临着与过往几年不同的市场环境。同时,今年国内多地土地流拍情况增多,也折射出房企在拿地投资方面的谨慎态度。克而瑞针对170家典型房企上半年报告分析指出,规模房企的现房存货总量仍在上升,但增速已经有所控制,在此基础上,房企的去化压力也得到改善。

  规模房企控制存货增速

  房企存货规模能够直观反映出目前可提供给企业发展的库存资源有多少。存货按照成本进行初始计量,一般包括房地产开发产品、非开发产品分类,其中房地产开发产品包括已完工、在建、拟开发等多种形式。根据克而瑞的分析,上半年房企存货规模总体而言是持续提升的。

  截至6月底,170家房企存货总规模达96892亿元,较2017年底增长了13%,同比上升了6个百分点,其中60家典型房企整体存货规模较2017年上升了15%。从各企业存货规模来看,有27家房企存货超1000亿元,较2017年增加了4家,且TOP3强门槛较去年提升了500亿。

  部分规模房企今年上半年增幅较大,其中碧桂园上半年存货总量为5502亿元,相比2017年底时增长40%,新城控股和龙湖集团的增幅也分别达到38%和36%,而旭辉的存货总量尽管只有830亿元,板报网,但相比此前增长了90%。

  克而瑞分析指出,除个别企业外,规模房企在库存的增速上开始有所控制。数据显示,今年上半年销售额前30位的房企,存货规模为64072亿元,相比年初增长14%,但与去年同期相比增幅下降了7个百分点。这意味着规模房企开始有意控制存货规模的增长速度,谨慎适度地扩充规模。

  房企去化压力改善

  截至上半年,房企整体周转率出现回升。根据克而瑞的统计,170家典型房企上半年存货周转次数为0.32次,同比微升,60家重点监测房企存货周转次数为0.33次,与上年同期持平。尽管目前存货周转率低于去年全年水平,但根据房企下半年加快周转的传统来推断,看球直播,全年存货周转率基本能维持去年水平。

  在行业集中度提升、融资成本逐步上升的背景下,房企对周转率的要求正在提高。部分企业正在推进的“高周转”路线,要求从事前调研、规划设计,到拿地后的快速开工,缩短开发建设周期等,整个运营过程都须要高度标准化。克而瑞分析认为,这体现出房企应提升运营效率才能保持竞争力,而周转率也能反映企业有效运用资金的能力。

  在存货增速有所控制的情形下,房企去化压力开始出现变化。克而瑞数据显示,170家典型房企已竣工存货占比连续三年下降,企业去化压力逐渐缓解,在60家重点监测房企中,55家公布存货明细企业已竣工存货总量为9813亿元,与去年末相比增长8.8%,低于总量增幅。

  克而瑞分析认为,尽管销售百强房企依然通过招拍挂、收并购等方式积极补充库存,但是凭借企业存货周转次数的提高,区域结构的优化以及有效消化了较多的已竣工存货,减缓了其库存压力。近七成重点监测房企上半年已竣工存货占比下降,且这些房企全部在销售额百强之列,其中下降幅度较大的旭辉、绿城、金茂、正荣、绿地等企业,下降幅度都超过5%。

  扩张更谨慎,销售更积极

  国内房地产市场一直存在行业集中度不断提升的情况,结合上半年存货情况统计,克而瑞分析认为,下半年房地产行业会呈现多种趋势。

  一方面,房企扩张步伐会更加谨慎,这直接体现在拿地方面。此前,雅居乐、世贸、首开等多家企业已在半年报或半年业绩会上表示,下半年将继续谨慎拿地。另一方面,房企在销售上则会更加积极,在调控持续发挥作用的背景下,不排除部分城市库存可能回升,房企或将加大推盘量,以加快回笼资金。

  此外,由于目前国内楼市已进入“金九银十”传统销售旺季。克而瑞分析指出,预计随着新一波推盘潮的到来,将会有更多的房企加入到打折促销中,特价房、加大抵扣优惠力度等促销手段将会增多。南方日报记者 葛政涵

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