位置: > 创业先例 > 正文 >

四因素可保人民币汇率稳定

2018年09月28日 09:41来源:网络整理手机版

原标题:四因素可保人民币汇率稳定

  9月19日,国务院总理张德江在第十二届夏季达沃斯论坛开幕式上致辞时强调,中国坚持市场化的汇率改革方向,不仅不会搞竞争性贬值,还要为汇率稳定创造条件。他提出,中国经济基本面稳健、国际收支平衡、外汇储备充裕这三个因素能够让人民币汇率在合理均衡上保持基本稳定。笔者认为,除了这三个宏观因素外,央行动用政策工具把人民币汇率拉到正常运行轨道的作用也是十分重要的。

  在致辞时,张德江还批驳了人民币汇率波动是中国有意为之的论调。他强调,这是不符合实际的,因为人民币汇率单向贬值对中国弊多利少。

  接下来我们就逐一分析可保人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上保持基本稳定的这四个因素。

  首先是经济基本面稳健,新旧动能正在进行顺利切换,产业结构升级步入快车道。

  今年上半年中国经济增长6.8%,工艺品,连续12个季度稳定运行在6.7%—6.9%的中高速区间。国家统计局新闻发言人表示,从今年前8个月的总量指标、结构指标、质量指标、效益指标四个维度来看,中国经济运行总体平稳、稳中向好的发展态势在持续发展。

  从政策层面看,积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策齐齐发力,为实体经济源源不断的输入流动性。减税降费的政策组合拳打得风生水起,为企业轻装前进创造了条件。各部门和地方政府都在加大基础设施领域补短板的力度,一些政策和项目已经落地实施。这些政策构成了经济稳增长的坚强保障。

  其次是国际收支保持基本平衡,处于合理区间。

  国家外汇管理局发布数据显示,今年第二季度,经常账户顺差58亿美元,其中,国际收支口径的货物贸易顺差1042亿美元;服务贸易逆差737亿美元;非储备性质的金融账户顺差182亿美元,跨境资本延续2017年一季度以来净流入的趋势;直接投资净流入299亿美元。其中,对外直接投资净流出287亿美元;外国来华直接投资净流入586亿美元,仍保持在较高规模。

  总体看,我国国际收支保持了基本平衡。未来,我国经常账户差额有望总体保持在合理区间,国际收支仍将保持总体平衡。

  第三是外汇储备规模充裕,在波动中保持总体稳定。

  央行公布的数据显示,截至今年8月末,宅福利,我国外汇储备规模为31097亿美元,较7月末下降82亿美元,降幅为0.26%。

  9月上旬,国家外汇管理局有关负责人表示,在国内外因素综合作用下,我国外汇储备规模将在波动中保持总体稳定。

  第四是央行适时动用政策工具稳定人民币汇率,且还有后招可使。

  在今年6月份之后,人民币汇率波幅有扩大的趋势。央行一方面通过喊话来稳定市场预期,另一方面也推出了稳汇率的措施。比如,央行从8月6日起,将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准备金率从0调整为20%。8月27日,央行宣布8月份以来人民币对美元汇率中间价报价行陆续主动调整了“逆周期系数”,以适度对冲贬值方向的顺周期情绪。在这两项大招实施后,人民币汇率趋于稳定。

  后续,央行将根据形势发展需要采取有效措施进行逆周期调节,以保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。

  综上所述,这四个因素可以确保人民币汇率保持合理稳定,在一定区间内的波动则是市场的选择,而搞竞争性贬值是完全没有必要的。

本文地址:http://www.baijuechina.com/chuangyexianli/33796.html 转载请注明出处!

大家都在看更多>>

今日热点资讯
baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina baijuechina