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厦门上半年商品住宅成交量创新低专家称房价暴涨时代已落幕

2018年09月28日 05:56来源:网络整理手机版

原标题:厦门上半年商品住宅成交量创新低 专家称房价暴涨时代已落幕

  继“楼市崩盘论”网络传言之后,9月20日,厦门楼市迎来了下半年备受关注的土地拍卖会,在此次拍卖会上,厦门岛内在时隔5年之后再次推出商住用地,最终被厦门本地国企建发集团摘得,最终成交价为57亿元。

  另据克而瑞机构最新数据显示,厦门新房价在8月份出现了结构性的回调。对此,厦门大学教授戴亦一认为,这是正常的市场回调,房价暴涨时代已经落幕。

  建发集团拿地溢价率27%

  官方信息显示, 厦门此次土地拍卖会上唯一岛内商住地块2018p02最终由建发集团旗下厦门益悦置业竞得。该地块土地面积为6.18万平方米,建筑面积为15.4万平方米,成交价为57亿元,成交楼面价为38102元/㎡,溢价率为27%。

  公开信息显示,这宗地块位于湖里区成功大道与金山西路交叉口东北侧,岛内几何中心位置,各项配套完善。值得一提的是,该地块是近5年来厦门岛内首次土地出让,此前该板块最高价格是2013年12月份同样被建发集团竞得的2013P15地块,楼面价为2.99万元/平方米。

  此次土地拍卖采用的是“限地价、竞配建”的方式,起拍楼面价为3万元/平方米,上限楼面价为4.5万元/平方米。

  厦门克而瑞机构分析师胡慧荣对《证券日报》记者表示,该体量相对较大,用地条件较好,但受容积率限制,不具备规划别墅条件,只能规划中等密度的普通住宅居住社区,与当前岛内仅剩的存量不多的大户豪宅有所错位,市场竞争力强,价格拓展空间相对较大。

  胡慧荣认为,今年以来,厦门商住地供应走优质地块与资质一般地块交替入市路线,但低溢价成交成常态,再加上新房市场的量价齐跌,素材信息,市场信心严重不足。本次拍卖距上次宅地出让已时隔两个半月之久,期间经历了厦门地价“腰斩论”风波,楼市“崩盘论”也一度甚嚣尘上,淡市加上舆论渲染,厦门楼市信心经历双重打击。最近5年来岛内宅地持续断供,此次厦门土地拍卖推出“寸土寸金”的岛内地块,以及集美环杏林湾板块两幅优质宅地,且在付款和预售等方面的限制条件明显放松,稳楼市预期明显。

  房价结构性合理回调

  据厦门克而瑞机构数据显示,2018上半年,厦门商品住宅供求双双下滑,成交量创新低,价格则持续攀升,全市均价逼近4万元/平方米。在大市低迷行情下,厦门商品住宅成交量持续走低,库存进一步扩容,去化周期延长至23.8个月,其中144平方米以上再改及高端产品去化周期均超过29个月,库存压力较大。今年7月份,厦门商品住宅市场供应开闸,成交与上月持平,供求比为1:1.35,呈供过于求态势。价格则现结构性上行,成交均价为46323元/平方米。

  然而,旅行社,在此期间,厦门楼市经历了地价“腰斩论”风波和楼市“崩盘论”风波,从克而瑞机构发布的8月份数据上可知,今年8月份,厦门商品住宅供应合计为6.96万平方米,成交4.69万平方米,成交均价结构性回落至38374元/平方米。

  在楼市严控政策下,自2017年下半年以来,厦门楼市逐渐回归理性成交量持续走低,楼市进入全面盘整期。这一轮调控较严,持续时间较长,部分项目开始降价营销,其中,厦门岛外部分偏远区域出现了低于单价低于2万元/平方米的项目。有业内人士认为,在低价盘带动下,对全市价格松动心理带动作用明显。

  对于厦门楼市后市,业内人士认为,本轮调控力度为史上最严,注定了这一轮盘整期会更长。

  9月20日,厦门大学教授戴亦一在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,不可否认厦门在2017年到2018年以来,房价有所下调,岛内大概超过20%的跌幅,岛外有的楼盘跌幅还更大一些,尤其是二手房方面。他认为,这是正常的市场回调,房价走势最终取决于实体经济。而厦门经济发展主要是未来的后劲问题,产业定位应该是高端制造业+高端服务业的集合。

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