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研究机构微幅上修台湾今年GDP称当前经济需“停看听”

2018年10月08日 13:02来源:网络整理手机版

台湾元大宝华综合经济研究院26日发布最新经济预测,上修台湾今年GDP至2.6%,较前次预测(6月)增加0.05个百分点,主因是迄今经济表现超乎预期,但仍面临中美贸易纷扰、两岸关系恶化及年金改革冲击等“三道逆风”,可能阻碍未来景气展望。

据《经济日报》、中央社等报道,元大宝华综合经济研究院董事长梁国源说,今年初各界对台湾经济前景的展望都还十分乐观,如同马路上绿灯亮起时,财帮子,可以一路畅通。但第二季后,讯息开始多空交杂,经济数据有正面、也有负面,这样的情况下,就得“停看听”,停下脚步来,看看到底经济发生什么事,听听各界的看法。

梁国源认为,尽管此次微幅上修GDP,但输出成长、民间消费及民间投资均下修,明年GDP预测值2.45%,也低于今年。虽然全球景气不至于急转直下,但仍需有所警惕。

梁国源提醒,美国和中国大陆是台湾最重要的出口市场,双方贸易摩擦,降低进口需求;全球供应链贸易量萎缩,减弱零组件需求;若干与大陆出口竞争产品获得转单利益等三个方面影响台湾经济。

至于这一贸易摩擦是否将吸引台商回流台湾,梁国源认为,回台湾生产须考虑成本因素,以及当局是否展现积极态度。最重要的是,旅行社,当局如何处理两岸关系,这才是影响事情后续发展的关键。

此外,军公教年金改革今年7月上路,所得替代率逐年递减,经济冲击虽可分散,但今、明两年影响较大,粗估将拉低民间消费0.6%至0.76%。所以,本次下修今年台湾民间消费成长率至2.48%,较前次预测减少0.12个百分点。

(责编:徐丹(实习生)、刘洁妍)

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